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Predictive Analytics Versus Hot Spotting:
A Study of Crime Prevention Accuracy and Efficiency

For the last 20 years, Hot Spots have become law enforcement’s predominant tool for crime analysis. The use of Hot Spots is convenient as they show both the density and intensity of crimes in a given location and are ideal to summarize areas of concern and the types of incidents that occur. However, Hot Spots have severe deficiencies as a crime prediction tool for directed patrols, primarily because they fail to take into account crime trends, crime interactions, and timing.

Predictive Analytics, utilizing advanced mathematical modeling, is proving to be an efficient and effective tool for law enforcement agencies looking to proactively police their jurisdictions. This research study shows how the right predictive analytics solution can help an agency improve both accuracy and efficiency in combating crime.

Highlights

  1. CommandCentral Predictive's algorithm is accurate 30% of the time at predicting the exact location and timeframe of crime
  2. Using Predictive Analytics, an agency's most efficient patrol area is 33% smaller than if one were using hot spotting
  3. Crime predictions 3x more accurate than hot spotting.